Over its 100 plus year history it has been accurate over 80% of the time. They have given the same forecast for this upcoming winter as last years, cold and heavy snow. I figure with their accuracy rate and the fact that they were wrong last year, odds are very good that they will be right on this winter. We can only hope so
As far as novelty goes, there are several factors that they use to come up with their forecasts. 80% accuracy tells me it's more than a novelty.
Actually I think the accuracy rate is around 85% which is better odds than any meteorologist or climatologist can claim. The formula used is known by 2 poeple!
Last year was one of their misses.
Their 60 outlook looks good for the plains and Great lakes states. Maybe some early snow around the end of October with cooler than normal temps.
</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote </td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">I figure with their accuracy rate and the fact that they were wrong last year, odds are very good that they will be right on this winter[/b][/quote]
The fact that they were wrong last year doesn't change the odds for this year independently. It's just that the odds of being severely wrong 2 years consecutively are lower.
well i cant see how the northeast is gonna get much snow or cold temps this winter, seeing how it is 80 degrees here every day and its mid september, its supposed to be 60 here not 80, it was 90 all week last week. im thinking a winter the same as last or less snow.
Ya gotta "believe" guys.... but I hear ya it doesn't seem to be looking good..... summers seem to last longer, and winters are quick and short....I don't believe in global warming, ozone action days and all that other good stuff, but as an earlier quote says the only real thing you can count on in dec. is shorter days! DooZ.....
My suggestion is to get your sleds in as tip top shape as possible so that if it is an off winter you are at least able to take advantage of every opportunity to ride and not be wrenching when it does snow!
I asked a farmer the other day this very same question. He told me that the squirrels were gathering their nuts earlier than normal this year. That usually means were in for a long winter. Hope he's right........
The General Weather Outlook
"First last years predictions the CFA takes great pride in providing our readers with the long-range weather prognostications.While these predictions are based on a time-tested formula, sometimes Mother Nature has a different scenario in mind. Yes, we are refering to last winter(as much as wee dislike admitting it) threw us a curve ball at our long range forcasts.Our initial expectations included an end to the long summer/fall drought with an early start to the winter, plus a very active pattern that would result in several heavy snowfalls.
But we werent the only ones who Mother Nature fooled. During the fall of 2001, the good folk at the U.S. Climate Analysis Center Of the National Weather Service had issued a winter forecast for The United States and Canada that was very similar to ours. And so had many local radio and TV weather services.What made the winter somewhat exasperating, for everybody who anticipated a predominatly cold and stormy winter,was the two main branches of the jet stream- the coldarctic and the moist subtropical- rarely connected with each other(or "phased" together). There was plenty of frigidly cold air,but most of the time it remained locked up over northwestern Canada and Alaska, and only occasionally pushed as far south and east as Quebec and The Maritimes. Last winter's weather reminds us of a saying that goes something like:"The Almanac maker predicts the weather , but another Maker makes the weather."
For the year 2002-2003
For the winter of 2002-2003,we are predicting a rough winter, with severe weather patterns that gradually shift eastward as the winter progresses. Precipitation is expected to be above average and tempuratures somewhat colder in all regions except the Pacific Northwest.Of course there is also an El Nino factor to consider.It should steer the usual winter storm track farther south than usual......."
I HOPE we get a good sledding winter this year, more then 100 inches around here, it seemed like every time last year, when a storm came it was rain, and when it was cold there was no precip. in the forecast. I hope we get lots of snow and cold temps. My sled is ALMOST done too, I CANT wait!!
</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (LadyK @ Sep. 18, 2002, 9:59pm)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">From the Canadian Farmers Almanac
And I quote
El Nino factor to consider.It should steer the usual winter storm track farther south than usual......."[/b][/quote]
Hey Lady as long as it dont get any more south then me
I friend of mine told me the Farmer's Almanac bases it's seasonal weather predictions based on the Solar cycle. In other words, more solar flares and storms, more violent shifts in weather patterns. . . more of a chance for a colder winter and hotter summer. Less solar activity, more of an even climate pattern, milder summers and winters.
I haven't confirmed that but it makes sense.
We didn't have a strong winter last year, but it was a strange winter as far as the not being able to predict it.
goto hardcoresleder he has the forcast posted from enviroment canada on this winter and it does NOT look good.They are predication is above normal temps and below normal [email protected] i hope they are wrong!
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