</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (revrnd @ June 05, 2002, 6:35pm)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">I read in the paper here on our side of the border that the US Weather Service (I think) was to make an announcement that El Nino coming this year wasn't expected to be as bad as in years past.
Anyone else know anything about this announcement?[/b][/quote]
EL NIÑO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
June 6, 2002
Further evolution toward a Pacific basin-wide warm episode (El Niño) was observed during May 2002, as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased throughout the equatorial Pacific between 170°E and 95°W (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). By the end of May warmer-than-normal SSTs were observed over a large portion of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 2, bottom panel), with departures from average greater than +1°C in the region from 165°E to 135°W and also locally between 130°W and the South American coast. This warming represents a significant transition from the localized warmth (central equatorial Pacific and South American coast) earlier this year, observed during recent months, toward a more extensive basin-wide warming typical of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.
This warming resulted from a significant weakening of the equatorial easterly winds throughout the Pacific related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is an important source of variability that can contribute to the evolution toward El Niño through related fluctuations in low-level winds and precipitation over the western and central equatorial Pacific. An eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave, initiated by strong MJO activity in late 2001, resulted in the rapid warming that was observed along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru in early February. Subsequently, MJO activity was relatively weak during early 2002, with no additional significant Kelvin wave activity during that period. However, in late April 2002 the MJO intensified and during the last half of May the low-level equatorial easterly winds substantially weakened throughout the Pacific, accompanied by an increase in equatorial SST anomalies (Figs. 1, 2, and 3). NOAA TAO buoy data indicate that the oceanic thermocline has deepened east of the date line (180°W) since mid-May, consistent with the basin-wide weakening of the low-level equatorial easterly winds. This deepening may be an indication of renewed Kelvin wave activity.
Given the recent strength of the MJO and its period of about 40 days, it is likely that significant month-to-month fluctuations will continue to occur in many atmospheric indices used to monitor the ENSO cycle. In spite of this variability, the overall trends in SSTs and some atmospheric indices (Southern Oscillation Index, 850-hPa zonal wind) in recent months indicate that further development of El Niño will continue. Consistent with this assessment, most statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate that weak-to-moderate El Niño conditions will continue through the end of 2002.
This discussion is a team effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Updates of SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and the equatorial subsurface temperature structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center web page at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Forecast Forum. To receive an e-mail notification when updated ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released please send your e-mail address to:
Ah, o.k., what does that mean? My take on it is two summers ago, we had a wet and wild summer and they blamed it on El Nino. Last year was dry and no talk of El Nino. So far this spring, it's been wet and wild with talks of El Nino.
Hence, my forecast is a winter like that of 00-01. Looks to be good year. If all else fails, go as far north as you can. I've missed out on the last two years of CA trips, it's gonna take a natural disaster to keep me from going this winter! Or global warming! ha ha
I live in Byron Center and I rode 2000 miles this season. I have familiy in Interlochen (Traverse City) as well as Marquette so I usually ride/stay in those areas. I usually end up driving up by myself and meet people up there so I am always interested in car pooling. Keep me in mind when the winter rolls around this year!
</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (revrnd @ June 06, 2002, 11:27pm)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">LadyK, for the most part I don't think Environment Canada knows what is going on next winter. Most of the time they can't predict a week ahead
I'd like to know what that post Corey made meant
You are right about that Rev. If it is they way they say we will just have to live in Cochrane for the winter
</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (SWWebmaster @ June 06, 2002, 10:11am)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">In spite of this variability, the overall trends in SSTs and some atmospheric indices in recent months indicate that further development of El Niño will continue. Consistent with this assessment, most statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate that weak-to-moderate El Niño conditions will continue through the end of 2002.[/b][/quote]
Sorry about that. This should sum it up at least by the NOAA perspective...
Maybe we can hook up this winter. My parents live up in Houghton Lake and my best friend lives up in Menominee in the UP. Another friend has family in TC and north of Muskegon (Holton area I think).
I work in Allegan and the trail isn't too far from here, so I might try to get some miles in down here too. Hopefully we get enough snow to get some good riding in. Do you ride at all down here (SW MI area)?
I just got my sled the end of Feb. It needs a tune-up or something, but it should be awesome after they get done with it. I'm taking it to Countryside Racing in South Haven. They build the motors for DJ Eckstrom and Justin Tate, so they should know what they're doing.
I can't wait till the snow flies!!!
Keep in touch.
You guys and gals are all invited to the mountains and trails of british columbia. Today was supposed to be a painting day but it is 0 out and is snowing like a bast#@*. I heard there are jack knifed semi's on the highways and like 4-6 inches at the summit. Sounds almost to hard to believe but its true, also saw a photo of someone in the mountains, riding with the tee shirt on at a web site, still in lots of snow. Riding from oct. till middle of june rocks, so plan your trips now...................
</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (PANTERAONE @ June 07, 2002, 11:19am)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">your all welcome in cochrane,lots of snow,and lots of trails,power lines,rivers,ditchs...etc etc...its always nice to meet new people....[/b][/quote]
Be ready panteraone we are coming.
Hopefully work wont interfear with winter too much. I might even take the winter off
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