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Looking good for the East Coast / Mid Alantic States..

Heavy Snow Thursday, Big Daddy this Weekend
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHEAST SNOWSTORM THURSDAY....BIG DADDY OF A STORM THIS WEEKEND....

Thursday Storm: PA, NY, New England, NJ.... The key to the storm Thursday will be the thunderstorms developing in the Tennessee Valley. I have said time and time again, where the thunderstorms move into the cold air is where the heaviest snows will fall. Just taking the NAM model this morning and looking at the convective parameters, thunderstorms should develop across the mid-Mississippi Valley late tonight and ride northeast through Kentucky into West Virginia. From there, the storms will be forced over the cold air mass into central PA. and southern New York where snow rates of 1-3 inches per hour will occur. That type of snow rate will translate east along I-80 and as far north as the southern tier of New York into southern New England where quick amounts of 3-6 inches will accumulate. Keep in mind folks, this is a quick hitting storm and roads will get covered quickly once the snow starts. For many folks, the commute home will be horrible. I told the weather-wife this morning, I hope they close schools tomorrow because the buses coming home are going to have a hard time on the snow-covered and icy roads. I like the snow map issued yesterday and for updates on the snow map, please check your local AccuWeather.com forecasts.

Weekend SuperStorm...... I made some minor adjustments to the snow map today, but overall I left things alone. The adjustments I made were mostly along the southern edge of the snow and mix area from Arkansas to Virginia where the cold air may not hold its ground long enough for substantial accumulations. In my mind this morning, figuring out where the cold front will end up across the South and Southeast Friday is critical to the track of the storm and how far north the initial center of the storm goes up west of the mountains before the secondary takes over. I am confident that the Northeast gets slammed by a major storm, but it's the corridor from New York City to Roanoke where it can go either way in regards to the type of precip. I do think places like NYC and Philly end up having snow as the storm bombs out and cold air rushes into the center of it.

For folks from central PA into Maine, I am not ready to unleash the "B" word just yet. While I think it's a heavy snowstorm with blowing and drifting snow, and temps in the teens and 20s, I am not sure just yet if it warrants the "B" word.

You will also notice I added the 6-12 inch area all the way back into the Mississippi Valley. While I don't think folks will get a foot of snow, I just wanted to cover the range of 6-10 inches that may fall where the thunderstorms curl into the cold air.

This is going to a be an intense storm and I think that message is getting out to everyone...

Updated: 12/12/2007 10:05 AM
Coffee Time - I Hate the Wait
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND STORM....STILL SOME DETAILS TO IRON OUT FOR TOMORROW'S SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST...

As I said last night, NYC is one of the problem spots for snow tomorrow. The temps are going to be right on the line for snow or a mix, and I think in the end, it will end up snowing a few inches into the city.

As for the weekend storm. The models are all showing a major storm developing in Texas, moving northeastward with one center going west of the Appalachians and weakening, followed by a secondary low developing off Virginia and bombing out as it moves north up the coast. In general, the snow map I issued yesterday looks pretty good to me with snow developing in Texas and Oklahoma and heading Northeast. I don't plan on making any sweeping changes based on each run of the models, but I will make some changes based on trends I see in the models. The final map gets issued Friday, then I go into storm mode. For many people from the Plains to the Ohio Valley to the Northeast, this is going to be a major storm that will impact travel and lives.

Updated: 12/12/2007 7:03 AM
Eve Thoughts on the Storms
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
THURSDAY STORM MAY HIT NEW YORK CITY WITH SNOW...WEEKEND STORM THOUGHTS..


1. I am concerned that I might not far enough south of the heavy snow into New York City Thursday. I noticed the models have trended colder and a little south on the snow area and are now placing NYC in the 3-5 inch snow area. I may have to consider moving the line down a little more along I-80 from PA to New York City. Other than that, the storm looks good...


Weekend Storm....
A lot of great e-mails coming in this afternoon, so keep them coming...And thanks for following the rules I posted today...

Also, lets keep in mind the models will change the track of the storm and strength of the storm with each, so lets not make changes based on the models waffle...

1. I think the speed of the storm will keep total snowfall down to the 18 inch. I know I have a 12-24 inch area, I may have to change that to 12-18 inch so not to confuse people into thinking that two feet of snow will fall.

2. I like the snow map issued today based on all the model information I saw today. I still think the battle ground will be the I-95 corridor from DC to NYC. I think the storm will be close enough to the coast to give some snow mixing with sleet and freezing rain...but again, a track farther east and it's all snow...

3. The severe weather aspect of the storm for the South is something I will be looking at more closely the next couple of days. Typically, these types of storms have a squall line with wind damage associated with them...

4. I may need to beef up snow amounts from Arkansas to southern Ohio. I need to consider the thunderstorms moving north into the cold air and where snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour may occur for a 6 hour period.

5. Snow ratios from central PA into Maine will vary from 15:1 to 20:1 due to he very cold air coming into the storm.

Updated: 12/11/2007 6:31 PM
12z Euro on the Storm
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
The new European model is in and it looks very much like the previous run. One low center goes up west of the Appalachians followed by a secondary low development along the Virginia coast. By Monday morning, the storm is bombed out off the New England coast...


Henry's Forecast Center
 

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I hope your right cause I've got the plow on the truck and the sled pointed out of the shed
 

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I got the sleds pointing out and when doublea is plowing, I will be jumping the piles of snow he puts up and wave at him from time to time,,,, LOL man, cant wait.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
Looking like a bomb out for me AGAIN!!!!!!!! You guys and gals North of me are gonna be the lucky ones... Crap...lol :cussing: :bash:
 

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Do you guys have much place to ride down there puree and doubleA? I need to get some miles on the new top end. I was going to head north and west sunday, but maybe I need to go south and east??
 

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Southern Ontario is supposed to feel the effects of the snowfall starting Saturday night according to The Weather Network up here :thumbsup: .
 

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We can ride nearly forever down here. doublea has quite a bit of land between him and his father as well as neighbors and such. I myself am dealing with these farmers everday and have permition to ride nearly anywhere,,, its a lot of ditches and fencerows,,, and of course, if the Alger bar is open, Patty cooks a mean burger and fries for lunch,,,, lets see what we end up getting down here and if someone is interested in heading this way, dont be afraid to say something,,,
Brian
 

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Well Well Well........The Snow Gods have listened to me......( maybe) The storm has tracked a little bit more North than what they thought just 24 hours ago and now we are under a winter storm watch for some significant snow in our area.. It went from 2-4 inches to NOW 6-10 inches for us through sunday. Oh my how a storm with snow can get a person excited ehh?

LET IT SNOW !

Snow4
 
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